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真够郁闷的,用了几个月的Wifi版的the new ipad, 竟然一直都没去了解如何设置一个移动的无线wifi,前天看到朋友在用移动无线路由,才知道一直把ipad放家里算是浪费了;




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英文版本的,没时间翻译,感觉很不错,转载过来。如英文不好的,可以看这里的中文的:互联网创业失败的7大征兆! 勉强说得过去。

Bjoern Lasse Herrmann is a co-founder of Blackbox, which runs a startup accelerator program and Startup Genome, a research and development project for uncovering the mechanics of startups.

Two months ago, my team at Blackbox set out on a mission to crack the innovation code of Silicon Valley and share it with the rest of the world. Now we are releasing a report based on the results of our first survey. We want to thank Sandbox, FastCompany, Inc., ReadWriteWeb, Hackernews, youngupstarts, and many more who helped us spread the word and gather a total of 650+ survey results. And a special thank you to all our fellow entrepreneurs who shared information about their company for this cause.

Here is a sneak peek of our results, showcasing 7 signs of failure:

1. Not Working Full Time (兼职创业)
If you decide to start a company, don’t do it half-hearted. Creating something from nothing is hard. Succeeding almost always requires going all in. Temporary moonlighting is permissible but significantly curbs performance and potential.

Many times we hear people say they will work half time until they have raised money. Here you can see that people who work half time are able to raise money, but about 24x less than founders who go full time. They also have trouble building up the intensity required to drive the user growth needed to validate interest in their product. Working full time is especially critical for startups with a product that requires critical mass to be valuable.

2. Solo Founder or 4+ Founders (独干或者有4个以上的创业者)
If you make the commitment to go full time, your first big challenge is to convince someone else to join your company who will fully commit to making the company successful. If you can’t convince at least one person to join you, or you believe you can do it all yourself, it is a strong signal the company isn’t likely to succeed. However, trying to find safety in numbers by having too many people to join the founding team doesn’t turn out very well either. The right number seems to be a founding team of two to three people.
● Solo founders raise less than 50% of what 2-3 founders raise. One reason for this is that during fundraising, solo founders are now forced to split their time and attention between the product, the businessand raising money.
● Solo founders have 290% less user growth and are 16% more likely to scale prematurely than founding teams of 2-3.
● More than 42% of the startups that are moving more than 20% slower than the average time needed to reach the scale stage are solo founders.


3. Don’t Have a Technical Cofounder (创业合作者中没有一位是技术出身)
If you start a technology company and nobody on your team is technical, you are unlikely to succeed. Unless the company is in a very sales-intensive market, the founding team should be at least 1⁄3 technical, 50% ideally. However, too many cooks in the kitchen are not good either.

The first problem you have by not having someone technical as part of the founding team is that you do not have anyone who has full ownership of the product. The business founder doesn’t own the product because they don’t understand the code, and the employees or consultants don’t own the product because the company is not theirs. As a result, companies with no technical cofounder are almost twice as likely to scale too early. They also have 3-5 times less user growth on average and need 7-8 months longer to reach the scaling stage.


4. Wrong Founding Team Composition for the Wrong Type of Startup
Once you’ve found your team, you should make sure to tackle a market and build a product that suits the strength of your founding team.

We identified three major types of Internet startups with various sub-types. They are segmented based on how they perform customer development and customer acquisition. Each type has different time, skill and money requirements.

The Automizer (Type 1)
Common characteristics: self-service customer acquisition, consumer focused, product centric, fast execution, often automize a manual process.

The Social Transformer (Type 1N)
Common characteristics: self service customer acquisition, critical mass, runaway user growth, winner take all markets, complex ux, network effects, typically create new ways for people to interact.

The Integrator (Type 2)
Common characteristics: Lead generation with inside sales reps, high certainty, product centric, early monetization, SME focused, smaller markets, often take innovations from consumer Internet and rebuild it for smaller enterprises.

The Challenger (Type 3): Large but rigid markets, strong sales, enterprise market
Common characteristics: enterprise sales, high customer dependency, complex & rigid markets, repeatable sales process.

These graphs show business heavy founding teams are more likely to succeed with a startup that requires enterprise sales, whereas technical heavy founding teams are more likely to succeed with a self-service consumer Internet startup. Balanced teams perform well with all types of startups except those that require a lot of enterprise sales.

For example, in our data set, 35% of business heavy founding teams were doing Type 1 “Automizer” startups before product market fit. But after product market fit only 12% of the business heavy founding teams were doing Automizer startups. This decrease indicates that business heavy founding teams do not do as well with Automizer startups.



5. Don’t Pivot at All or Pivot Too Often
If you have finally found the perfect founding team and a product and market suited to your team’s strengths, your next big challenge is having the determination to make your vision a reality while being flexible in how this is achieved. The chances that you will need to modify some significant aspect of your business is very high. When real-world feedback shows you that something isn’t working, you need to adapt. However, changing your business too frequently will leave you running in circles. We have found that founders who pivot 1-2 times have 100% more user growth and are 48% less likely to scale prematurely. (We told founders to consider a pivot a major change in their business.)


6. Don’t Listen to Customers
Pivoting is almost always a decision that is made with incomplete information and under conditions of extreme uncertainty. But taking the time to gather feedback by interacting with customers significantly increases the odds of making a good decision. We have found that startups that track their metrics and listen to customers have 400% more user growth.


7. Scale without Validating Market
Lastly, one of the most critical mistakes we found is that founders get too anxious about making progress and scale their company prematurely, before validating their market and streamlining their customer acquisition process. If they have raised a lot of money or have a lot of determination, the result is typically a slow death. If they have neither, then a speedy death is likely.

The following graphs show that startups that scale after product market fit raise 3.2x more money, and have 1.5x more user growth. Interestingly, startups that scaled prematurely had been working just as long as startups that scaled appropriately.


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其实在很多时候,大部分的小公司的以及一些小的项目都仅仅依靠创始人或者项目发起人的经验与行业沉淀,甚至是直觉来确定方向,那么这个时候该用怎么 样的一个套路来保证项目的成功率,并及早的发现方向性的错误,快速掉头呢?我把自己的方法化成了如下的一张流程图,分享给大家:





1. 市场:选定目标用户,明确用户的核心需求,以及核心需求与用户的利益关联。





2. 资源:资金,资质,人脉,行业成点


3. 团队:核心成员,技术创始人,团队分工与利益分配




  • 有市场有人,没资源不做。
  • 有市场有资源,找不到合适的人不做。
  • 有资源有人,没市场,这个就想都不用想了。

二, 产品计划与市场规划的确定


  • 依据用户的需求确定产品的核心功能,并确保核心功能实现的可行性。
  • 做好市场的规划,假定自己有了产品,自己会卖给哪些人,怎么卖。
  • 明确项目的生死线,多久,花多少资源,达到什么条件。


三, 市场校验


在一个产品的核心功能被市场验证前,一切的用户体验,非核心功能的研发都有可能在最后成为无用功。很多团队在产品核心功能没被市场验证之时,急于开 发辅助性功能,包括:官网,管理后台,界面美化等工作,是非常愚蠢的。因为这样当你发现核心需求判断错误想掉头时,发现自己已经陷入太深。



既然是Demo就不要去管他的易用性,界面美观度或者其他的一些辅助功能,只要拥有最核心的功能就可以了,以网络电话为例,你只要用最原始的界面, 开发一个拨号盘能挂电话即可,包括音量调节,账户登录,账户扣费等等全都不需要开发,包括充值,扣费信息,通话记录查询什么的,你和用户说,没事我人工帮 你查。就最基础的拨号通话功能+XXX分钟通话时间,直接给用户用即可。






四, 发布自己的产品





在打磨核心功时,一定不要过度的追其完美,而是要把握好用户需求的临界值,同样以通话质量为例,用户的核心需求是顺利的完成通话,当通话质量清晰和 稳定到足以满足用户的通话需求时,音质是MP3品质,还是CD音轨品质,用户已经不太关心了,而如果过度追求完美的话,可能在这里浪费大量的精力与金钱, 因为根据二八原则,我们可能会为了提出最后的那20%通话质量付出80%的金钱,最悲催的是,用户对此毫不关心甚至注意不到这点区别,所以,你懂的。




然后再分享两个理论: 可用->好用->用的爽,以及著名的马斯洛需求理论。






  1. 产品与商务模式没有先在小规模的范围内被验证。
  2. 核心成员没有被很好的激励与约束。
  3. 没有将目标用户群,细化为具体的商务目标。
  4. 没有意识到商务资源的重要性,有些蛋糕不是谁都能吃得到的。
  5. 在获得了一些成就后,心气过高,完美主义与理想主义情节严重。
  6. 知易行难,一定要保持好对自己的高要求,不能懈怠。
  7. 还有一点不方便在公众场合公布就不做分享了,主要关于行业资源与行业经验。
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